Agenda:

6:00-6:30 Business Meeting

6:30-7:30 Dinner

7:30-8:30 Seminar -- Dr. Dongfeng Wu, University of Louisville

 

Cost:

$10 for KY ASA members and $15 for non-members (1/2 price for students)

 

Payment:

You may pay in advance or at the door.

 

RSVP:

Please respond to Simon Bonner at simon.bonner@uky.edu by January 2, 2013.

 

 

Title: Inference of Long Term Effects and Over-diagnosis in Periodic Cancer Screening

 

Abstract:

This project develops a probability model for evaluating long-term effects due to regular screening. Initially asymptomatic people who take part in cancer screening were categorized into four mutually exclusive groups: True-earlydetection, No-early-detection, Over-diagnosis, and Symptom-free-life. For each case, probability formulas were derived rigorously. Simulation studies using the HIP (Health Insurance Plan for Greater New York) breast cancer study's data provide estimates for these probabilities and corresponding credible intervals. These probabilities change with a person's age at study entry, screening frequency, screening sensitivity, and other parameters. We also allow human lifetime to be subject to a competing risk of death from other causes by using the actuarial life table from Social Security Administration. The model can provide policy makers with important information regarding the distribution of individuals participating in a screening program who eventually fall into one ofthe four categories.